Trading volumes on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) may be climbing again, but investors aren’t buying the rally — literally. In the first half of 2025, the JSE Main Market registered a robust $50.7 billion in turnover, surpassing both the pandemic-era lows and the pre-COVID benchmark of 2019. But while volumes surged, confidence slid quietly out the back door.
By June 2025, the market’s overall value had contracted by 2.29 per cent to $1.68 trillion, and average stock prices fell for the third consecutive month. Despite rising activity levels, nearly three-quarters of Main Market stocks traded lower — a contradiction that points not to optimism, but strategic retreat.
Behind the scenes, institutional investors — the real power brokers of the exchange — intensified block trades, capturing the largest share of total value in three years. But the increased activity wasn’t buoyant. It was defensive. Repositioning. In Jacksonian terms, this was portfolio triage, not market exuberance.
Veteran market analyst John Jackson offered a blunt assessment: “The market isn’t broken. The companies are.” With earnings underwhelming and outlooks muddled, investors are reallocating capital with caution — not rushing back in. According to data, 31 of 52 Main Market companies reported year-over-year declines in profit. In Jackson’s words: “Profits are the engine of the stock market, and right now, too many engines are sputtering.”
Notably, this earnings drought isn’t isolated to blue chips. The Junior Market, which typically attracts more aggressive capital, saw volumes collapse by over 50 per cent year-on-year. And even with the Bank of Jamaica trimming policy rates down to 5.75 per cent over the last year, the supposed “cheap money” hasn’t rushed into equities. Instead, institutional capital continues to circle safer harbours — namely, corporate bonds offering yields north of 10 per cent.
The result? A market where risk appetite has narrowed to a whisper. While certain stocks — like Scotia Group, Carreras, and Sagicor — have seen price action linked to earnings growth, the broader market has languished. “Capital follows performance,” Jackson reiterated, “and right now the performance isn’t widespread enough.”
Compounding the malaise is election uncertainty. Political volatility injected new hesitancy into already cautious markets. The JSE Index fluctuated wildly in June, with daily moves averaging 3.6 per cent — well above May’s average. Investors, particularly foreign ones, pulled back, waiting for signals stronger than poll results and rate cuts. The USD Equities Index slipped 11 per cent year-on-year, signalling global capital’s retreat from Jamaican equities for now.
Seasonal behaviour added fuel to the fire. Historically, post-May months usher in trading lulls as investors “go on holiday,” and 2025 was no exception — with June volumes plunging over 26 per cent from the month prior. Junior Market participation cratered, down 57 per cent month-on-month, underscoring the vacuum of risk-on sentiment.
Still, pockets of resilience suggest that all is not lost. Carreras rallied over 70 per cent in one year on the back of consistent profit growth, while Sagicor has begun showing signs of a turnaround. For the few companies still delivering, investor interest has followed — a rare reward in a market largely trading sideways.
For now, monetary easing has opened a window, but only strong corporate fundamentals can pull investors through it. As Jackson noted: “Rates are coming down. The economy is inching forward. But until more companies deliver solid, sustained profits, this market will remain a waiting game.”
In other words: the JSE isn’t dead. It’s just waiting for something — or someone — worth betting on.
