Kingston, Jamaica — Twelve months ago, the travel boards in Montego Bay were bracing for a fourth straight quarter of contraction. Today, Minister of Tourism Edmund Bartlett is trading caution for swagger, confident that Jamaica’s flagship industry can sprint into double-digit growth territory before year-end.
“We’re not just back in the race — we’re setting the pace,” Bartlett told business leaders at the 11th annual Christmas in July marketplace, hosted this week at the Jamaica Pegasus.
From Turbulence to Traction
- Macro uptick: Jamaica’s economy inched ahead by 1.1 per cent in Q1 2025; tourism outpaced that at ≈2 per cent, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica’s re-tooled Accommodation & Food Services data.
- Visitor haul: Roughly 2.3 million arrivals have already crossed the immigration desks this calendar year, spending an estimated US $2.4 billion — momentum Bartlett says “puts us squarely back on the 2023 glide path.”
- Hurricane hangover: Even a direct hit from Hurricane Beryl and a patchwork of external travel advisories failed to derail the turnaround, underscoring what the minister calls the sector’s “shock-absorbing chassis.”
The 5×5×5 Countdown
Bartlett’s ministry still eyes its headline metric: five million visitors and US $5 billion in receipts within five fiscal years (clock stops 31 March 2026). Cruise tourism is the swing factor. With ≈750,000 passengers logged so far, officials are targeting another 600,000-plus berths by December. Hitting that mark would leave the 5×5×5 target “well within striking distance,” Bartlett asserts.
Home-Grown or Hollowed-Out?
The Christmas in July expo — 180 artisans strong, generating north of JMD $1 billion in orders since its 2014 debut — spotlighted a familiar pain point: too much imported inventory, too little local capture.
“If producers here don’t fill the shelves, someone offshore will,” Bartlett warned. “We’re already retaining 40¢ of every tourism dollar, up from 25¢ a few years back. My mandate is to keep pushing that number higher.”
To cement that objective:
- ‘Local-first’ procurement rule: New legislation will nudge hotels and attractions to exhaust domestic supply options before looking overseas.
- Long-term contracts: A regulatory framework is being drafted to lock in multiyear agreements between hospitality buyers and Jamaican manufacturers — cushioning small firms against seasonal swings.
- Premium pivot: As room-rates climb into luxury brackets, demand for “genuine Jamaican” goods — from Blue Mountain-infused skincare to artisanal spirits — is expected to spike.
Next on Deck
With the July-to-September corridor already filling up, Bartlett believes a 10 per cent-plus year-over-year leap by end-July is “well within the realm of the possible.”
Entrepreneurs, he says, should treat the current window as a scale-up crucible: “Use the momentum. Convert purchase orders into production lines, turn samples into export catalogs, and meet the market before someone else does.”
